NFL Picks

Betting Tip #1

Always separate entertainment vs. profit.

Historically, the most heavily-wagered games are not the most profitable for gamblers. Resist the temptation to bet on the stand alone games – Thursday Night, Sunday Night, and Monday Night – simply because they are the only game on TV. More money is lost on these games than all others combined. When considering whether to wager on the game, think about it as if it was one of the other dozen games on Sunday. If there’s an edge, play it; otherwise, relish in the fact that you can relax watching these games without losing money on it as those around you likely do.

Betting Tip #2

Watch the injury wire each week.

More so than ever before, in today’s NFL, players come off and on the active roster with great frequency. Be sure to stay vigilant on whether key players are out, doubtful, or simply dinged up and then, watch for over adjustments on the line. The bookmakers tend to over compensate for injury impact.

Betting Tip #3

Always line shop.

Football spreads, especially the NFL, are incredibly tight. A point or even a half point can make a huge difference in your bottom line profit over the course of a season. Always search multiple sources for the best number out there and if your only book has a bad number, DO NOT BET THE GAME.

Betting Tip #4

Pay attention to the key numbers.

Betting Tip #5

Always stay disciplined.

As we have preached over and over for years, the golden rule of gambling is to manage your bankroll and only wager what you can afford to lose. This is true in all sports, but especially in the NFL, where the schedule of kickoff times provides the lure of chasing your earlier losses. Sportsbooks make their yearly nut on people chasing their losses on the “I need to win this so I can avoid a losing week”. Don’t be a sucker. Chasing has ruined more lives than we care to remember.

Betting Tip #6

Not all Teasers are created equal.

While we generally stay away from teasers and parlays on the whole, the NFL is one exception. We make good money every year teasing NFL sides. We are very selective and look for teasers that can take the line through the key numbers of 3,4, 7 and 10. Three team teasers paying +170 can be smart bets at times, though finding them has been harder and harder to do as the books have slowly caught on. Hunt around and try to get them while you can.

Betting Tip #7

Look for value in individual player prop bets.

While we have never played fantasy football, the rise of the industry has helped us build our bankroll through the increase in player prop bets available. All of the data circulating out there for fantasy heads has led to a plethora of individual player prop options in most books, especially for prime time games.

Betting Tip #8

Have fun.

You work hard to have enough disposable income to bet on the weekends. Don’t waste it. If winning as a sports gambler was easy, everyone would quit their jobs and do it. While you certainly will improve your chances at profiting with The Hot Picks team in your corner, it is important to remember that you should be betting the games to make the time you spend watching them with friends and family more enjoyable — not to make this month’s rent. As much as we want you to win, we don’t want you to lose even more. Always manage your bankroll and never bet above your means or to pay the bills.

Betting Tip #9

Seek a Professional Edge.

Just like you wouldn’t try to design your own house if you aren’t an architect or operate on a broken leg if you aren’t a doctor, let the professionals do what they get paid to do. The Hot Picks team works seven days a week to find the advantage plays and pass them on to our users. Don’t go it alone.  Join The Hot Picks team, get our NFL picks and let us help you build your bankroll.

Best of luck and thank you for being part of The Hot Picks Nation!

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