Football is America’s favorite sport to bet on. Billions of dollars are bet on the NFL and NCAAF each year. Our team of handicappers each have a specialty that they focus on. From Player Props, to FCS games, to NFL Totals Sides and Moneylines…We beat the market!!!
Now before you go putting your whole bankroll out on Week 1, let’s go over some tips for betting this football season.
Guidelines for NCAA Football
1. NEVER TEASE: Do not ever tease College Football games, especially totals. Don’t get lured into teasing NCAAF games or you will quickly realize why such bets got their name. It may seem easy to win these when you move the lines, but the odds are stacked against you to win both legs.
2. KEY NUMBERS – NOT AS KEY AS THE NFL: The key numbers we rely on in the NFL are not as strong in College Football. The NFL has some very strong key numbers (3s, 7s, etc.) that even the most seasoned professional sports bettors will buy into. The key numbers in College Football are not close to being as strong as those in the NFL, so I generally stay away from buying when betting NCAAF.
3. DON’T OVERVALUE THE IMPACT OF WEATHER: Most bettors have the common misconception that a rainy day leads to a more likely under total. This is not the case. First of all, always remember that present weather conditions are already built into the totals. Sometimes a weather forecast changes mid-week, but that should not drive you to bet the under if rain is on the way. Wind and field condition knowledge can often provide advantages, but as always, it depends on the number you are getting.
4. CORRELATED PARLAYS DO EXIST: Parlays for the most part, are not good value. But in some situations there is some value. Over/Favorite and Under/Underdog correlations can create advantages if the numbers are right. The problem is that most sports books are keen to it and simply don’t take these bets.
5. HOME FIELD MEANS MORE: Having the Home Field is much more important in college sports than it is in the pros. Though this advantage is still usually baked into the line, there are special circumstances where the bookmaker has not adjusted it correctly.
6. FCS is STRONG: Some of the most profitable outcomes in ANY sport has been through betting the FCS College Football games. We have information on these small market games that just cannot be matched anywhere. Remember, FCS games are 3% plays and, as you will see, have some of the best closing line value of ANY sport we play.
NFL Betting Tips
1. Teasers are ok, if the number is right: Beating NFL teasers gets harder and harder each year, as sportsbooks are changing the odds to their advantage. 6/6.5/7 point teasers are still available to bet, but the juice on them has been priced way too high at a lot of sportsbooks. Do NOT lay more than -120 on these teasers. At -130 these are unbeatable long term. Remember to never teaser through the 0, and always try to tease through the key numbers of 3 and 7.
2. Prop it up: The Player Prop market has expanded so much over the past 5-6 years! It use to be that we only got a huge list of props to get for the Super Bowl, but today you can get 40-50 options for each NFL game. Stay tuned in the the coaches and injury reports and you can pick off some nice +EV plays in the play prop market each week.
3. Live Betting- Only bet during commercials: Every book now has some sort of LIVE betting but you need to be very careful when playing this market. Do not overload yourself on one game by continuing to bet it LIVE. The biggest tip on betting LIVE is ONLY BET DURING COMMERCIALS! The broadcast you are watching is on a delay, sometimes up to 30-40 seconds. Sportsbooks have access to the up to second AM feed so they are ahead of what you are seeing. Please only bet during commercials to assure that you aren’t betting while the sportsbook is 1 or 2 plays ahead of you.
4. NFL Sides are tough: While we have seen that these are actually beatable now and I am playing them each week, make sure you are betting more % of your bankroll on props and totals. We suggest 1% on NFL sides and up to 2% on totals and props.
5. Always line shop: Football spreads, especially in the NFL are incredibly tight. A point or even a half point can make a huge difference over the course of a season. Don’t get lazy and just play the book in front of you or first on you phone apps. Make sure you have money loaded into multiple outs, and always find the best line for every single play.
Sports bettors are really excited for this time of year and ready to fire away, but if you want to improve your chances at profiting consistently then please follow these tips listed above.
